Market Maker Buy Model — Pattern Reference | runic.tools
Identification Rules
- Find a clear price range with an obvious swing low and swing high. The low anchors the sell side of the curve. The high anchors the buy side.
- The range must sit at a higher time frame key level in a discount zone (below the 50% midpoint of a larger range).
- Look for two distinct accumulation phases (clusters of up-close candles) on the sell side of the curve before the smart money reversal.
- A Smart Money Reversal (SMR) forms at the lowest low of the range. This is the turning point from sell side to buy side.
- Use time frame alignment: pair a higher time frame PD array with a lower time frame range. Example: daily PD array pairs with a 1-hour MMBM.
- Commitment of Traders (COT) data can confirm the setup. Look for commercial traders (central banks) at their highest net long reading in the last 12 months at a new quarter.
- Bullish order blocks on the sell side become mitigation blocks on the buy side. These are the key entry zones.
Entry Rules
- Enter long from a mitigation block on the buy side of the curve.
- Pair the mitigation block with a new PD array (like a fair value gap or bullish order block) that forms inside the mitigation block range.
- The lowest-risk buy entry forms after a short-term breaker following the Smart Money Reversal. This is Accumulation 1.
- The highest probability entry is the second stage of accumulation (Silver Bullet), especially when paired with an SMT divergence.
Stop Rules
- Place stop loss below the mitigation block used for entry.
- On the lowest-risk buy after the SMR, stop goes below the smart money reversal low.
Target Rules
- First target is internal range liquidity — a fair value gap or order block within the buy side of the curve.
- Final target is the external range liquidity — the buy stops (old highs) above the original consolidation at the top of the range.
- Use time frame alignment to project targets. A daily MMBM targets a daily external range level. An hourly MMBM targets an hourly external level.
Confluence Factors
- COT commercial traders at 12-month net long extreme at a new quarter
- Higher time frame institutional order flow is bullish (price is in a discount on a weekly or monthly chart)
- SMT divergence at the second accumulation phase (Silver Bullet setup)
- PD array (fair value gap or order block) forms inside the mitigation block range
- Time frame alignment is correct (e.g., daily PD array paired with 1-hour MMBM)
- New quarter or key calendar date coincides with the smart money reversal
- Two clear accumulation phases visible on the sell side before reversal
- Clean external-to-internal or internal-to-external draw on liquidity narrative in place
Failure Modes
- Price breaks below the smart money reversal low
- Mitigation block is skipped — price blasts through without reacting
- No PD array forms inside the mitigation block
- Higher time frame order flow is actually bearish
- Time frame mismatch
Common Mistakes
- Entering from the mitigation block without waiting for a nested PD array
- Trading the pattern without a higher time frame narrative
- Ignoring time frame alignment rules
- Entering at the first accumulation phase and expecting the full move immediately
- Looking at COT on a currency pair like EUR/USD instead of individual futures
- Forcing a range that does not clearly connect a swing low to a swing high
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Market Maker Buy Model?
It is a price range where large institutions build long positions as price falls, then push price higher to collect buy stops above. It has a sell side (the drop) and a buy side (the rally). Traders look for long entries on the buy side using mitigation blocks.
What is the sell side and buy side of the curve?
The sell side is everything to the left of the lowest low — the declining phase where institutions are quietly accumulating longs. The buy side is everything to the right of that low — the rally phase where price moves up toward external liquidity.
What is a mitigation block and how do I use it?
A mitigation block is an old bullish order block from the sell side of the curve. You extend it to the right. When price returns to it on the buy side, it offers a long entry — but only if a new PD array (like a fair value gap) forms inside it.
What is the Silver Bullet in this model?
The Silver Bullet is the second accumulation phase on the sell side of the curve. When paired with SMT divergence, it is considered the highest probability trade in the model. It usually produces the biggest and most explosive move.
How do I know which time frames to use?
Use this alignment: monthly PD array with daily MMBM, weekly with 4-hour, daily with 1-hour, 4-hour with 15-minute, 1-hour with 5-minute, and 15-minute with 1-minute. The PD array on the higher time frame defines the key level. The MMBM forms on the lower time frame within it.
How does COT data help confirm the model?
COT (Commitment of Traders) data shows what commercial traders (central banks) are doing. If they are at their highest net long position in the last 12 months at a new quarter, it confirms that big money is buying — matching the logic of a buy model. Always check COT on individual currency futures, not pairs.
What invalidates a Market Maker Buy Model?
If price breaks below the smart money reversal low — the lowest point of the model — the setup is invalid. The model's entire logic depends on that low holding as the turning point.
Can this model be traded on any time frame?
Yes. Market Maker Models form on every time frame from monthly charts down to 1-minute charts. The key is using correct time frame alignment and always having a higher time frame reason (a discount key level and bullish order flow) to support the trade.