Market Maker Sell Model — Pattern Reference | runic.tools
Identification Rules
- Identify a clear price range: a swing high (buy stops) to a swing low (sell stops). This is your market maker sell model range.
- The highest high of the range defines the 'curve.' Everything to the left of this high is the buy side of the curve. Everything to the right is the sell side.
- Look for an original consolidation near the top of the range before price begins distributing lower.
- There should be at least two accumulation (distribution) phases on the buy side of the curve before the smart money reversal.
- The model must sit at or near a higher time frame premium key level. A range alone is not enough.
- Use time frame alignment: monthly PD pairs with a daily MMSM, weekly with 4H, daily with 1H, 4H with 15M, 1H with 5M, 15M with 1M.
- Look for bearish order blocks (down-closed candles) on the buy side of the curve. These become mitigation blocks when extended into the sell side.
- Confirm the model fits within an internal-to-external or external-to-internal range liquidity draw.
Entry Rules
- Enter short from a mitigation block on the sell side of the curve.
- A new PD array (fair value gap or order block) must form within the range of the mitigation block before entering.
- The highest-probability entry is the second accumulation phase (the Silver Bullet) when paired with SMT divergence.
- Only take entries after a short-term breaker forms following the smart money reversal at the highest high.
Stop Rules
- Place your stop above the mitigation block or the PD array you are trading from.
- Do not place stops above the swing high of the entire model.
Target Rules
- Primary target is the sell-side liquidity at the lowest low of the model range (sell stops / external range liquidity).
- For internal-to-external plays, target the external range liquidity low.
- Intermediate targets include internal range liquidity levels such as fair value gaps below price.
Confluence Factors
- Higher time frame premium key level aligns with the top of the model range.
- SMT divergence at the second accumulation phase (Silver Bullet setup).
- New PD array forms inside the mitigation block range.
- COT (Commitment of Traders) data shows commercials near a net short extreme in the last 12 months.
- Model forms at a new quarter turn on the higher time frame chart.
- Time frame alignment matches correctly (e.g., daily key level with 1H model).
- External-to-internal or internal-to-external range liquidity draw aligns with model direction.
- Bearish institutional order flow confirmed on the higher time frame.
Failure Modes
- No higher time frame key level
- Wrong time frame alignment
- Missing PD array inside the mitigation block
- Entering before the smart money reversal confirms
- No liquidity draw identified
Common Mistakes
- Trading the pattern without higher time frame bias.
- Treating any range as a market maker model.
- Skipping time frame alignment rules.
- Entering short too early on the buy side of the curve.
- Ignoring SMT divergence at the Silver Bullet phase.
- Not extending mitigation blocks forward into the sell side of the curve.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Market Maker Sell Model?
It is a bearish price pattern that shows how large institutions distribute (sell) their positions over time. It runs from a swing high (where buy stops sit) down to a swing low (where sell stops sit). Traders use it to find short entry points that line up with what the big players are doing.
How is a Market Maker Sell Model different from just a downtrend?
A downtrend is just price moving lower. A Market Maker Sell Model has a specific structure: an original consolidation near the top, at least two distribution phases, a smart money reversal at the highest high, and a sell-side delivery phase below. It also has to sit at a higher time frame key level and follow strict time frame alignment rules.
What is the buy side and sell side of the curve in a sell model?
The highest high of the range defines the curve. Everything to the left of that high — where price was rising into it — is the buy side of the curve. Everything to the right — where price drops away from it — is the sell side of the curve. Entries are taken on the sell side using old order blocks from the buy side.
What is a mitigation block and how do I use it?
A mitigation block is an old bearish order block (down-closed candles) from the buy side of the curve that you extend forward in time into the sell side. When price rallies back up into that area on the sell side, institutions are 'mitigating' (closing out) old positions. You look for a new fair value gap or order block to form inside that zone, then enter short from it.
What is the Silver Bullet entry in a sell model?
The Silver Bullet is the second distribution phase on the buy side of the curve. It is considered the highest-probability short entry because it tends to produce the biggest, most explosive move to the downside. It becomes even stronger when you add SMT divergence — where a correlated pair makes a higher high while the pair you are trading does not.
What time frames should I use for a Market Maker Sell Model?
The time frame you use depends on your higher time frame PD array. The alignment is: monthly PD pairs with a daily model, weekly with 4-hour, daily with 1-hour, 4-hour with 15-minute, 1-hour with 5-minute, and 15-minute with 1-minute. Sticking to these pairings helps you find cleaner, clearer models.
Do I need to check COT data to trade this model?
On the higher time frame, yes — COT (Commitment of Traders) data helps confirm that commercials (central banks) are near a net short extreme. You look at the last 12 months of data, split it in half, and check if commercials are below the 50 line near a key time like a new quarter. This is the big-picture confirmation. For lower time frame entries, COT is less relevant, but the higher time frame thesis still needs to be bearish.
What makes a Market Maker Sell Model fail?
The most common reasons it fails are: trading it without a higher time frame premium level, using the wrong time frame pairing, entering before the smart money reversal is confirmed, or not waiting for a new PD array to form inside the mitigation block. If price breaks back above the highest high of the model, the entire setup is invalid.