Candle Close Confirmation — Pattern Reference | runic.tools
Identification Rules
- A recognizable candlestick pattern (e.g., engulfing, hammer, morning star, evening star) must fully close before confirmation is considered valid.
- The confirming candle must close in the direction of the anticipated move — a bullish setup requires a close above the pattern high; a bearish setup requires a close below the pattern low.
- Volume on the confirmation candle should be elevated relative to recent average, ideally 1.5–3x average volume for reversal patterns.
- Pattern should form at or near a meaningful price level such as support, resistance, or a prior swing point.
- A secondary indicator (RSI, MACD, or moving average) should align directionally with the pattern signal.
- Higher-timeframe context should not contradict the setup — e.g., a bullish confirmation pattern should not form mid-trend in a strong higher-timeframe downtrend without additional confluence.
Entry Rules
- Enter on the open of the candle immediately following the confirmed close of the pattern candle.
- For engulfing or multi-candle reversal patterns, enter above the high of the final confirmation candle on a bullish setup, or below the low on a bearish setup.
- Only enter if volume on the confirmation candle is above average; volume 2–3x average provides the strongest signal, especially for engulfing patterns.
- Use a top-down approach: confirm trend direction on a higher timeframe before executing an entry on the primary trading timeframe.
Stop Rules
- Place stop-loss below the swing low of the full pattern structure on a bullish setup, or above the swing high on a bearish setup.
- Confirm the volume spike before committing stop placement — if volume is absent, the pattern may not justify a tight stop and the trade should be avoided.
- Do not place stops inside the body or wick of the signal candle — allow room for normal price fluctuation at the level.
Target Rules
- Target the nearest significant resistance level (bullish) or support level (bearish) as the primary profit objective.
- Scale out or trail stop as price approaches the first target, using a moving average or volume decline as an exit trigger.
- Minimum risk-reward ratio should be 1:2 before taking a trade; 1:3 or better is preferred for lower-probability patterns.
Confluence Factors
- Volume spike of 2–3x average on the confirmation candle
- Pattern forming at a key support or resistance level
- RSI divergence aligning with the reversal direction
- MACD bullish or bearish crossover coinciding with pattern close
- Higher-timeframe trend in alignment with the trade direction
- ADX above 30, indicating a strong directional trend environment
- Sustained volume build-up across multiple candles leading into the pattern
- Moving average acting as dynamic support or resistance near the pattern
- Pattern appearing after an extended trend move, increasing exhaustion probability
Failure Modes
- Low-volume confirmation
- Counter-trend setup
- False breakout close
- Indicator divergence ignored
- Premature entry before close
Common Mistakes
- Entering before the confirmation candle closes
- Ignoring broader market context and higher-timeframe trend
- Trading patterns without volume confirmation
- Using a single indicator or pattern in isolation
- Confirmation bias — only looking for evidence that supports the anticipated direction
- Placing stop-loss inside the signal candle's wick
