Candle Close Confirmation — Pattern Reference | runic.tools

Identification Rules

  • A recognizable candlestick pattern (e.g., engulfing, hammer, morning star, evening star) must fully close before confirmation is considered valid.
  • The confirming candle must close in the direction of the anticipated move — a bullish setup requires a close above the pattern high; a bearish setup requires a close below the pattern low.
  • Volume on the confirmation candle should be elevated relative to recent average, ideally 1.5–3x average volume for reversal patterns.
  • Pattern should form at or near a meaningful price level such as support, resistance, or a prior swing point.
  • A secondary indicator (RSI, MACD, or moving average) should align directionally with the pattern signal.
  • Higher-timeframe context should not contradict the setup — e.g., a bullish confirmation pattern should not form mid-trend in a strong higher-timeframe downtrend without additional confluence.

Entry Rules

  • Enter on the open of the candle immediately following the confirmed close of the pattern candle.
  • For engulfing or multi-candle reversal patterns, enter above the high of the final confirmation candle on a bullish setup, or below the low on a bearish setup.
  • Only enter if volume on the confirmation candle is above average; volume 2–3x average provides the strongest signal, especially for engulfing patterns.
  • Use a top-down approach: confirm trend direction on a higher timeframe before executing an entry on the primary trading timeframe.

Stop Rules

  • Place stop-loss below the swing low of the full pattern structure on a bullish setup, or above the swing high on a bearish setup.
  • Confirm the volume spike before committing stop placement — if volume is absent, the pattern may not justify a tight stop and the trade should be avoided.
  • Do not place stops inside the body or wick of the signal candle — allow room for normal price fluctuation at the level.

Target Rules

  • Target the nearest significant resistance level (bullish) or support level (bearish) as the primary profit objective.
  • Scale out or trail stop as price approaches the first target, using a moving average or volume decline as an exit trigger.
  • Minimum risk-reward ratio should be 1:2 before taking a trade; 1:3 or better is preferred for lower-probability patterns.

Confluence Factors

  • Volume spike of 2–3x average on the confirmation candle
  • Pattern forming at a key support or resistance level
  • RSI divergence aligning with the reversal direction
  • MACD bullish or bearish crossover coinciding with pattern close
  • Higher-timeframe trend in alignment with the trade direction
  • ADX above 30, indicating a strong directional trend environment
  • Sustained volume build-up across multiple candles leading into the pattern
  • Moving average acting as dynamic support or resistance near the pattern
  • Pattern appearing after an extended trend move, increasing exhaustion probability

Failure Modes

  • Low-volume confirmation
  • Counter-trend setup
  • False breakout close
  • Indicator divergence ignored
  • Premature entry before close

Common Mistakes

  • Entering before the confirmation candle closes
  • Ignoring broader market context and higher-timeframe trend
  • Trading patterns without volume confirmation
  • Using a single indicator or pattern in isolation
  • Confirmation bias — only looking for evidence that supports the anticipated direction
  • Placing stop-loss inside the signal candle's wick